Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 2.622613 3.052003 3.527465 4.092715 4.746177 5.477696 6.358618
2026-01-18 1.939758 2.511353 3.211830 4.132219 5.308772 6.761614 8.691529
2026-01-25 1.496869 2.115701 2.939865 4.115113 5.745578 7.925497 11.060097
2026-02-01 1.135732 1.729990 2.579461 3.877867 5.808168 8.567569 12.808485
2026-02-08 0.908559 1.477321 2.342005 3.745795 5.961516 9.317203 14.778717
2026-02-15 0.762644 1.314429 2.200589 3.718406 6.244586 10.270672 17.162882
2026-02-22 0.680993 1.237033 2.175238 3.861480 6.804670 11.714344 20.507082
2026-03-01 0.586433 1.118991 2.060028 3.829093 7.056617 12.673672 23.163143
2026-03-08 0.504669 1.008559 1.938358 3.761465 7.228143 13.504734 25.691817
2026-03-15 0.446001 0.930857 1.862599 3.762932 7.518864 14.574414 28.780203
2026-03-22 0.429238 0.932324 1.935783 4.057613 8.402206 16.842742 34.408690
2026-03-29 0.392496 0.886375 1.907896 4.145201 8.886376 18.402989 38.853778
2026-04-05 0.355838 0.836695 1.869379 4.214844 9.364633 20.054933 43.798623
2026-04-12 0.318772 0.780188 1.808738 4.230391 9.737066 21.553764 48.666580
2026-04-19 0.283553 0.721700 1.734542 4.204294 10.015053 22.892469 53.385688
2026-04-26 0.239014 0.632656 1.576287 3.959228 9.759430 23.032051 55.461678
2026-05-03 0.207616 0.570566 1.471381 3.823516 9.737167 23.688546 58.807718
2026-05-10 0.186287 0.530622 1.414015 3.795253 9.969235 24.962681 63.786655
2026-05-17 0.175953 0.518350 1.424510 3.941102 10.656801 27.413269 71.962637
2026-05-24 0.158622 0.483404 1.370226 3.908023 10.878846 28.749668 77.532519
2026-05-31 0.141899 0.447102 1.306448 3.839019 10.995313 29.834766 82.606451
2026-06-07 0.129738 0.422119 1.270033 3.840511 11.303929 31.457512 89.322135
2026-06-14 0.128906 0.431847 1.334279 4.141121 12.494082 35.574805 103.341947